The Reverse Bradley Effect

The hubby has a theory that I believe carries some serious weight in this year’s election.  No one can doubt that this year’s election is historic in many ways — including the nomination of an African-American candidate by a major political party.  However, as a matter of historical politics, Obama faces a somewhat uphill battle based on what has been dubbed the “Bradley Effect.”  In a nutshell, the Bradley Effect is a term used to describe the discrepancy between polling numbers and actual election results when a black candidate faces a white candidate in an election.  The Bradley Effect is named after a California gubernatorial election in which black candidate Tom Bradley enjoyed a lead in pre-election polling and in exit polls — but ultimately lost the election to white candidate George Deukmejian.

Sociologists and other researchers have attributed the Bradley Effect to basic racism — when actually voting, an individual’s racist beliefs and tendencies will overcome any prior public statements of support.  Thus, with respect to this election, many believe that the Bradley Effect can lead to an inflation of Obama’s poll numbers by approximately 6%.  Coupled with standard polling errors, and Obama could in fact be trailing in the race for the presidency.

However, the hubby has hypothesized that the stupidity of Dubya (and his potential successor in stupidity, Sarah Palin) will lead to a reverse Bradley Effect.  We all know that it boils down to electoral votes (as Al Gore knows too well).  But looking purely at the voting numbers, the hubby thinks that the reverse Bradley Effect will lead to Obama trouncing Johnny Mac in the general election.  In other words, if Obama has a 5% lead in pre-election polling, he’ll actually demolish Johnny Mac by 10%, demoralizing Johnny Mac and his dumbass running mate.

How does this happen, you ask?  Well, the idea is that there are a ton of people in America who are overtly racist but want to vote for Obama.  They are sick of eating the diarrhea pie baked by Dubya and view Obama as an individual who, despite his “blackness,” is good for the country.  But to folks in the neighborhood, these individuals would never publicly proclaim support for a black man.  So to pollsters, the answer is expectedly McCain.  But in the private confines of the voting booth, these Confederate flag waving, life-long conservatives with a penchant for the KKK and disdain for the black man, will ultimately vote for Obama.  Because another four years of swallowing diarrhea pie just does not sound appetizing.

And if anyone finds out, blame it on the chad.  Damn chad.

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2 Comments

Filed under Personal Pontification

2 responses to “The Reverse Bradley Effect

  1. Reverend Manny

    “Because another four years of swallowing diarrhea pie just does not sound appetizing.” yeah.. that’s definitely some shit…

    you make a really good point here…

    one love,
    –reverend manny

  2. thesixteenthzephyr

    One can only hope that America has had enough of swallowing “diarrhea pie”…. (Which, I have to say, is quite a succinct and vivid summation of the past eight years.) Unfortunately, up until the culmination of economic crisis during the past month or so, lots of people have had their heads buried in the sand and haven’t even seen what’s been going on in Washington…. Scary stuff ^^.

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